"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
As a poker player, and definitely as a micro-stakes player, this quote is truth incarnate. The biggest advancement in my game won't come from all of the fancy, advanced bluffs that'll just go over the heads of most opponents at these limits anyways; what helps most is the ability to plug all of my own leaks, spot them in others, and take advantage of them.
And so, I've decided to start using this blog to catalog and analyze the big, huge leaks in my game that I've committed as a reminder to myself of what to watch out for both in myself and others.
First hand for analysis and my largest, repeat offender leak: Not folding premium preflop hands postflop.
Example hand from the week (sorry, I don't have access to my hand histories atm so it's gonna be story-telling style):
I'm playing 10NL on a loose table, full-ring NL cash game on PokerStars. I get AA in the big blind. There are 3 limpers, UTG+1, MP1, and SB. Heck no I don't want that many limpers in with me, so I make a standard raise to .60 (3x BB + 1 BB/limper), and everyone but the SB calls. Flop comes down 78J rainbow; looking at a straight drawy flop like that in a 4-way pot, I bet about 2/3 the pot to price drawers out and, with the loose way the table's been, I'd expect to get a hand like AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, Jx to call despite my obvious representation of AJ or an overpair. The pot is $3.10 at this point... and then UTG+1 suddenly shoves to make it an extra $8.20 for me to call a $12.50 pot.
I definitely should have folded, but here's where my mind gets all crazy, like it does, and tricks itself into believing it still has the best hand despite all the obvious signs. It's a fast table, so I have 30 secs to think, and all I can think of is:
"He can't have the straight. No way he limp/call/shoved T9 from UTG+1. First, he's been pretty tight preflop so T9o is NOT in his range. Not to mention, it's a weak, mostly disjointed board. Maybe he has AJ or JT. I've got pot odds of about 4:3, so I can't be off by that much. Heck, I'm probably ahead, right?" Running out of time but pleased with my analysis, I call with a second left on the timer, and mentally bitch slap myself.
I was partially right, he didn't have the straight. But he didn't have AJ or JT, either. He limp/call/shoved the far more logical 88 for bottom set. The problem there was I only thought the hand half through. Why didn't I consider the set when he limp/call/shoved on a straight drawy board? It fits the action perfectly for a set-miner on the micros when someone (me) clearly has a big hand like aces. The problem isn't that I'm not capable of the analysis (I've sometimes caught myself and laid down big pocket pairs), it's that when I see Aces or Kings and a ragged flop, I get too excited. I'm too used to winning the hand and thinking "Goddamn, I've got a premium pair. Of course I deserve to win, I'm practically invincible!" It's an emotional response now. Too bad emotional response doesn't account for the chance of the villain with a lower pocket pair getting a set, two pair, or a straight. Emotional response, paired with my concern at the time running down (I hate getting auto-folded) and my literally half-assed analysis led to my donkey call, losing me 82 big blinds that I really shouldn't have. On the other hand, I ran really, really well the rest of that session getting KK, QQ, JJ, TT, and 55 in about 60 hands (hooray!), and I ended finishing up 12 BB. If only I hadn't donked away 82 of them on that one hand!
I'm working on plugging that leak, but I've got a good way to go. It's kind of like an addiction; I know I have a problem, but I can't stop. The ironic part is that I can spot the tendency in others pretty well, but I can't always catch myself doing it. Oh well. The first step to recovery is knowing you have a problem.
Stay tuned for my next big mistake... here's hoping it's later rather than sooner (Hah, yeah right)!
Friday, January 22, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Upcoming Atlantic City Trip!
I'm heading to Atlantic City in about a month for a weekend. 8 guys, 2 motel rooms, all amateurs. To bone up for that, I've started single tabling cash games at NL10 for an hour or two a day. With all that I read about the necessary volume and good sample sizes, my 60-120 hands a day really don't seem like much. From what I've read on the 2+2 forums, 20k hands or so is when you start getting to a good sample size. At my current rate, let's say I average 100 hands/day, I won't hit that for almost 7 months lol. For the 600 hands I've played so far, though, things have gone my way. I've closed a lot of leaks, the largest of which was not knowing when to fold overpairs like AA or TPTK postflop; that always used to unnecessarily cost me around half a buy-in or more when I called down. Cutting that mistake out, combined with a lot of postflop play that I picked up from HUSNGs, has made me a much, much better player. On the 5-6 tables I've sat down at so far, I definitely felt like I had an edge on most if not all of the other players sitting with me... but again, I haven't played too many games, so I can't be sure that I'm a winner. Caution's always a good thing where gambling's concerned.
Back to the AC bit (yes, my cash game discussion did have a point), the notion of small sample size even when playing online for an hour or two worries me a bit. The AC tables are extremely high variance... they tend to play much, much worse but bet much, much higher with marginal holdings, giving a better return for more risk (the risk is when they actually have something or if they draw out on you). Over a small sample size, it's pretty likely that I'll be going through some swings in the hundreds of dollars playing the $1-$2 games. Also, with how slow live games are compared to online, I wonder how my psyche will stand up to any bad beats that happen early. While I'm definitely life-rolled for the $1-$2 game, I don't think I want to risk more than 4 buy-ins on this trip. Only time will tell if that turns out to be a good decision or not.
As far as HUSNGs I'll be taking a break from them for now; it's full ring cash game for my daily hobby.
Back to the AC bit (yes, my cash game discussion did have a point), the notion of small sample size even when playing online for an hour or two worries me a bit. The AC tables are extremely high variance... they tend to play much, much worse but bet much, much higher with marginal holdings, giving a better return for more risk (the risk is when they actually have something or if they draw out on you). Over a small sample size, it's pretty likely that I'll be going through some swings in the hundreds of dollars playing the $1-$2 games. Also, with how slow live games are compared to online, I wonder how my psyche will stand up to any bad beats that happen early. While I'm definitely life-rolled for the $1-$2 game, I don't think I want to risk more than 4 buy-ins on this trip. Only time will tell if that turns out to be a good decision or not.
As far as HUSNGs I'll be taking a break from them for now; it's full ring cash game for my daily hobby.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The Background Story
This is the story of how I got into poker. I warn you, it's pretty long.
I admit, I'm not a complete beginner. I was introduced in high school to the game of Texas Hold 'Em by friends in 2003 during the Moneymaker Era. We'd get together, hang out, have a beer or two and play a good game. I got hooked because I tended to do better than all of my friends, having stumbled early on upon a long-since forgotten ebook detailing the TAG style. A mediocre book, in hindsight, because it was a cookiecutter strategy manual without any provisions for adapting to your opponents, but the games I played in were so incredibly loose and passive that I basically dominated by playing just quality hands.
I tried playing online once I got to college, depositing $50 on a site here or there and trying my luck at STTs like I was used to playing with my buddies. I lost it all because I understood literally nothing about bankroll management, playing $10 games with my $50 bankroll. Sure, I got it up to $100 in no time once, but I inevitably lost it in no time too.
In 2009, I found a decent job the week after graduation, something I was pumped about because of how bad the economy was and is. It's a pretty nice setup really. I'm a government contractor that literally cannot work more than 40 hours/week. That means I have pretty much the best work/life balance an 8-hour job can give you. With a steady paycheck and a ton of free time, I turned back to poker.
I decided to do it right this time, though, investing in good poker books like the Harrington on Hold 'Em tournament and cash game books, Gus Hansen's Every Hand Revealed, and a few others that got good reviews on amazon.com. I also lurked (and still do lurk) in the twoplustwo forums, learning what I could there. I learned the LAG style and adapting to exploit an opponent's holes in their game, how to bluff better, how to hand read better, and most importantly, how to properly manage a bankroll.
I definitely had tilt issues, though. My Sharkscope graph looks kind of crazy... it has one major upswing from a 2nd place, $125 finish in a $4.40 180-man tournament, which was my favorite game up until a month ago (I'd play one every day or two after work). Then I had a pretty awesome, exciting time in my life because I was preparing to propose to my girlfriend (now fiancée!), donking off most of my winnings in a $50 and $20 tournament a few days before the proposal to vent some of the tension. Note to self: stay away from the poker tables during extreme life moments, good or bad. Even though I felt ridiculously awesome, it threw my game off. Poker requires a middle-of-the-road, confident mindset. I'll have to remember take some time off when I get married this October... but we'll see if that happens!
A month ago, though, I stumbled upon the HUSNGs, and just noticed how absolutely terrible the majority of my opponents were at the low stakes. I grinded up through the $2.20s in no time and had basically one long heater into the $5.25s, building my bankroll from $120-$250 with an utterly ridiculous record. I went something like 36 W 6 L in the span of two weeks, I think. Sure, some of that's skill, but a lot of it was luck, too; you can't get those numbers without some good fortune.
Last week, though, the poker honeymoon period ended. Deciding that 25 buy-ins was enough, I took a 5 buy-in shot at the $10.50 level... and got smacked down going 6 W 11 L in 3 days. Even worse, when I moved back down to the $5 level, I discovered the games weren't just magically handed to me like they were before.
So here I am, with a bankroll hovering just over $200, trying to grind up to the $300 level before I try the $10.50 again. I'd love to try and get there by the end of January, but monetary goals are always iffy in the poker world.
I'll stick with a volume goal of playing 7 games a day, and eventually the money will (hopefully) follow.
I'm excited to see if I really am a long term winner... I haven't even played 200 heads up games yet hehe. I've got no illusions about how small a sample size that really is. Am I just a fishy donator running good? Or do I really have what it takes to be in the coveted top 26% of poker players, that high section that actually makes money instead of loses it? The jury's still out, ladies and gentlemen.
EDIT! Recap at the end of March 2010:
Hah. HUSNGs. After playing for a while, I'm actually still not sure where I stand in them. Oh, how naively optimistic I was. Then again, I've started focusing exclusively on cash games since just before the AC trip. They seem more steady and predictable, with quite a bit less variance, in my experience. That said, since I still have $30 or so on PokerStars, I'll probably take that and see how I run in HUSNGs some day, trying to build it up. Til then, cash games all the way (I think I've finally turned the tipping point and become an online winner)!
I admit, I'm not a complete beginner. I was introduced in high school to the game of Texas Hold 'Em by friends in 2003 during the Moneymaker Era. We'd get together, hang out, have a beer or two and play a good game. I got hooked because I tended to do better than all of my friends, having stumbled early on upon a long-since forgotten ebook detailing the TAG style. A mediocre book, in hindsight, because it was a cookiecutter strategy manual without any provisions for adapting to your opponents, but the games I played in were so incredibly loose and passive that I basically dominated by playing just quality hands.
I tried playing online once I got to college, depositing $50 on a site here or there and trying my luck at STTs like I was used to playing with my buddies. I lost it all because I understood literally nothing about bankroll management, playing $10 games with my $50 bankroll. Sure, I got it up to $100 in no time once, but I inevitably lost it in no time too.
In 2009, I found a decent job the week after graduation, something I was pumped about because of how bad the economy was and is. It's a pretty nice setup really. I'm a government contractor that literally cannot work more than 40 hours/week. That means I have pretty much the best work/life balance an 8-hour job can give you. With a steady paycheck and a ton of free time, I turned back to poker.
I decided to do it right this time, though, investing in good poker books like the Harrington on Hold 'Em tournament and cash game books, Gus Hansen's Every Hand Revealed, and a few others that got good reviews on amazon.com. I also lurked (and still do lurk) in the twoplustwo forums, learning what I could there. I learned the LAG style and adapting to exploit an opponent's holes in their game, how to bluff better, how to hand read better, and most importantly, how to properly manage a bankroll.
I definitely had tilt issues, though. My Sharkscope graph looks kind of crazy... it has one major upswing from a 2nd place, $125 finish in a $4.40 180-man tournament, which was my favorite game up until a month ago (I'd play one every day or two after work). Then I had a pretty awesome, exciting time in my life because I was preparing to propose to my girlfriend (now fiancée!), donking off most of my winnings in a $50 and $20 tournament a few days before the proposal to vent some of the tension. Note to self: stay away from the poker tables during extreme life moments, good or bad. Even though I felt ridiculously awesome, it threw my game off. Poker requires a middle-of-the-road, confident mindset. I'll have to remember take some time off when I get married this October... but we'll see if that happens!
A month ago, though, I stumbled upon the HUSNGs, and just noticed how absolutely terrible the majority of my opponents were at the low stakes. I grinded up through the $2.20s in no time and had basically one long heater into the $5.25s, building my bankroll from $120-$250 with an utterly ridiculous record. I went something like 36 W 6 L in the span of two weeks, I think. Sure, some of that's skill, but a lot of it was luck, too; you can't get those numbers without some good fortune.
Last week, though, the poker honeymoon period ended. Deciding that 25 buy-ins was enough, I took a 5 buy-in shot at the $10.50 level... and got smacked down going 6 W 11 L in 3 days. Even worse, when I moved back down to the $5 level, I discovered the games weren't just magically handed to me like they were before.
So here I am, with a bankroll hovering just over $200, trying to grind up to the $300 level before I try the $10.50 again. I'd love to try and get there by the end of January, but monetary goals are always iffy in the poker world.
I'll stick with a volume goal of playing 7 games a day, and eventually the money will (hopefully) follow.
I'm excited to see if I really am a long term winner... I haven't even played 200 heads up games yet hehe. I've got no illusions about how small a sample size that really is. Am I just a fishy donator running good? Or do I really have what it takes to be in the coveted top 26% of poker players, that high section that actually makes money instead of loses it? The jury's still out, ladies and gentlemen.
EDIT! Recap at the end of March 2010:
Hah. HUSNGs. After playing for a while, I'm actually still not sure where I stand in them. Oh, how naively optimistic I was. Then again, I've started focusing exclusively on cash games since just before the AC trip. They seem more steady and predictable, with quite a bit less variance, in my experience. That said, since I still have $30 or so on PokerStars, I'll probably take that and see how I run in HUSNGs some day, trying to build it up. Til then, cash games all the way (I think I've finally turned the tipping point and become an online winner)!
Beginning of the Thorny Poker Road!
This is the first time I've written a blog. From what I've read so far, it seems to work well motivating those super-elite professionals that I am insanely envious of, so here I am.
Sadly, I am not one of those superstars pulling down tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in the poker realm (Yet? Hopefully? Pretty please, poker gods?).
No, this blog will follow the humble beginnings of a current 10 NL cash/$5.25 HUSNG/$3 STT/MTT player on PokerStars. It doesn't seem often that you see blogs from players at the low stakes... maybe because we're really not even sure we're winners yet at this level. That's part of the lure, though, eh?
Sadly, I am not one of those superstars pulling down tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in the poker realm (Yet? Hopefully? Pretty please, poker gods?).
No, this blog will follow the humble beginnings of a current 10 NL cash/$5.25 HUSNG/$3 STT/MTT player on PokerStars. It doesn't seem often that you see blogs from players at the low stakes... maybe because we're really not even sure we're winners yet at this level. That's part of the lure, though, eh?
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